1 m. In this case, the allowance is equal to 0.5 m (the mean sea-level rise)+0.2 m (associated with the uncertainty)=0.7 m, which is significant larger than the mean sea-level rise. However, in general, the allowance is less than the 95-percentile upper limit (which is 0.83 m in this typical case). Projections of the future climate are based on models driven by plausible scenarios for the emissions of greenhouse gases. In the case of the IPCC AR4 and the projections to be described
in this section, emissions were based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES; Nakicenovic et al., 2000). The derivation of the projections of regional sea-level Akt assay rise followed Church et al. (2011) and Slangen et al. (2012), and is described in detail
in Appendix A. The resultant projections are composed of terms due BIBW2992 cell line to 1. the global-average sea-level rise (including ‘scaled-up ice sheet discharge’ (Meehl et al., 2007; see Fig. 1)), Fig. 1. Global-average projections of sea-level rise relative to 1990, based on the IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007) and reproduced in Church et al. (2011). The outer light lines and the shaded region show the 5- to 95-percentile range of projections with and without ‘scaled-up ice sheet discharge’ (SUISD), respectively. The continuous coloured lines from 1990 to 2100 indicate the central value of the projections, with SUISD. The open and shaded bars at the right show the 5- to 95-percentile range of projections for 2100 for the various SRES scenarios, with and without SUISD. The diamonds and horizontal lines in the bars are the central values with and without SUISD. The observational estimates of global-average sea level based on tide-gauge measurements and satellite altimeter data are shown in black and red, respectively. The tide-gauge data are set to zero at the start of the projections in 1990, and the altimeter data are set equal to the tide-gauge data at the start of the record in 1993. (For interpretation of the references to color in
this figure legend, the reader Protein kinase N1 is referred to the web version of this article.) While terms (2) and (3) are generated by effectively the same models of crustal loading and gravitational field, they are forced by quite different time-series of land-ice change. It should also be noted that the terms (1)–(4) have been generated by separate models and are added linearly; nonlinear interactions between the terms are ignored. The spatially varying sea-level rise related to change in ocean density and dynamics (term (4), above) is provided by atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). While global-average sea-level rise has been reported for six emission scenarios (B1, B2, A1B, A1T, A2, A1FI; Meehl et al., 2007), results from AOGCMs are only available for scenarios B1, A1B and A2.