e. a correlation between the two terms), and k being the lag [15]. All statistical analyses were done in SPSS version 15, using automated identification of best-fit models from each dependant variable based on performance measure, where probabilities less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Lag association was also automated by SPSS. Results Descriptive dilution calculator analysis On an average, there were about 400 daily attendances at the ED during the selleck catalog period July 2005 to Dec 2007.

These comprise Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical 8% P1, or approximately 30 cases per day. P2 and P3 patients together accounted for about 92% of total daily attendances (Table ​(Table2).2). About 70% of P1 attendances were for severe respiratory and heart conditions; while approximately 80% of P3 attendances were for trauma, viral infection and gastrointestinal diseases. P2 cases were a combination of P1 and P3 dominant conditions. Significant daily variations were noted, with daily P1 attendances ranging from 10 to 72 cases, P2 attendances ranging from 96 to 239 cases, and P3 attendances ranging Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical from 138 to 307 cases. Table 2 Mean daily attendances at emergency department by patient acuity category The secular trend

is one of increasing trend in total attendances, especially from 2006 onwards (Fig. ​(Fig.1).1). Fig. ​Fig.22 shows weekly fluctuations. The Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical higher total attendances on Monday were contributed mainly by P2 and P3 cases, while higher attendances on Sunday were contributed by P3 cases. Fig. ​Fig.33 shows higher attendances from May to July, being contributed mainly by P3 cases. There was no yearly fluctuation in P1 attendances. Figure 1 Daily attendances at emergency department by patient acuity categories, Jul 2005 to Dec 2007. Figure Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical 2 Average daily attendances at emergency department by day of the week, Jul 2005 to Dec 2007. Figure 3 Average daily attendances at emergency department by month of the year, Jul 2005 to Dec 2007.

Univariate analysis Table ​Table33 shows a significant upward secular trend in the number Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical of attendances; with a monthly increase of 2.2 total attendances during the study period. These were contributed by a monthly increase of 0.3 cases of P1 and 2.1 cases of P2. On public holidays, there was an average of 18 more P3 attendances per day. Average ambient temperature was associated with about 6 more P3 attendances per Celsius degree increase. Moderate ambient air quality (PSI > 50) was correlated with an average Dacomitinib of 8–9 more P1 and P2 attendances per day. Overall, humidity was negatively correlated with P1 and P2 cases. Table 3 Univariate analysis of daily attendances at emergency department by predictors Time series analysis As shown in Table ​Table4,4, by Ljung-Box tests, the p-values of the best-fit models were not significant, which means all the four models closely represented the observed time series. The best-fit model for P1 was ARIMA(0,1,1), which is a non-seasonal and non-stationary moving average model.