Industry In the reference scenario, energy consumption in the industrial sector in 2050 reaches 2.2-fold the level of 2005 (Fig. 11). The shares of gas and electricity increase in the fuel mix. As a selleck kinase inhibitor consequence of this increase in energy consumption and change in the fuel mix, direct CO2 emissions in 2050 reach 2.1-fold the level of 2005. Fig. 11 Transition in the industrial sector. D in c on the right denotes direct emission; D&I denotes the sum of direct emission and indirect emission Entospletinib purchase The s600 scenario diverges from the reference case in energy saving and through a fuel switch.

The change in energy saving in s600 is derived from reduced fuel consumption: in 2050, energy consumption is reduced by 10 % from the reference case. The fuel shift in the s600 scenario is a large shift from coal to gas. The share of coal declines from 35 to 10 % from 2005 to 2050, while that of gas rises from 17 to 41 %. As a consequence of this energy saving and fuel switch,

direct emissions of CO2 in 2050 are reduced by half from the reference scenario, ending up, in 2050, at about the same level as 2005. Moreover, if indirect CO2 emissions by electricity use are included, Selleck APR-246 the significantly improved CO2 emission factor of electricity in the s600 scenario (see Fig. 10c) substantially reduces the CO2 emissions from the reference level. CO2 emissions in 2050 are reduced by 82 % from the reference scenario and by 62 % from the 2005 level, if indirect CO2 emissions are included. Transport Considerable technological changes take place in the transport sector. Figure 12 shows the technological change in passenger cars. In the reference scenario, the efficient internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) becomes widespread. The hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) appears about 15 years into the scenario, from 2020, and steadily grows in prominence until 2050, when its share of total vehicles reaches 30 %. Fig. 12 Technological changes in passenger cars The technological transition in the s600 scenario is more significant than that in the reference scenario. HEV is introduced on a large scale after 2015, and its share reaches

more than 60 % by 2035. The fuel cell vehicle (FCV) is rapidly deployed after 2035, and its share reaches about 45 % in 2050. As a consequence of the technological changes in the s600 scenario, the total energy Osimertinib concentration consumption of the transport sector is reduced by 25 % from that in the reference scenario in 2050 (Fig. 13). The widespread use of biofuel in s600 also contributes to reduced oil consumption: oil consumption falls by about 20 % by 2050 relative to 2005. This, in turn, results in a significant CO2 emission reduction in the s600 scenario: direct CO2 emission in 2050 is 60 % lower than that in the reference scenario and 17 % lower than the 2005 level. Moreover, if indirect emission is included, CO2 emission in 2050 is reduced by half relative to 2005.